Why should I be concerned?

Influenza pandemics are inevitable. Three flu pandemics occurred last century: in 1918, 1957, and 1968. A novel H1N1(A) virus is now causing the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century.(1)

  1. The White House Council of Advisors on Science and Technology predicts 90,000 Americans could die this year from the novel H1N1 virus.(2)

  2. Unlike seasonal flu, which generally affects the elderly and the very young, novel H1N1 (A) attacks those who are generally unharmed by severe influenza infection. The median age of hospitalized cases is currently 19 years old.(3)

  3. Though the pandemic has thus far claimed relatively few lives, government officials warn that the United States should prepare for a more severe phase in the fall.(4)

  4. Students Prep America ("SPA") is an independent organization that seeks to protect our young population, who historically and currently risk severe illness and death from novel influenza viruses.

Most Americans do not worry about seasonal flu, especially if they are young and healthy. Because influenza pandemics result from newly emerged flu viruses, virtually no individual has immunity. The Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 killed over 50 million worldwide, including 675,000 in the United States.(5) Though relatively few fatalities occurred early in the pandemic, which started in the spring of 1918, morbidity and mortality escalated sharply when temperatures dropped in the fall. Many more of its victims were between the ages of 15 and 45 than those from seasonal flu (as seen below).(6) Unfortunately, this trend persists in the 2009 H1N1(A) Influenza Pandemic.

 

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The 1918 Spanish Flu and the current pandemic are strikingly similar. Both pandemic viruses are novel H1N1(A) strains.(7) Additionally, they both impact unusually young populations. According to Anne Schuchat, Deputy Director for Science and Public Health Program at the CDC, "We are seeing high rates of illness among people under 50. The highest rates are in those under 25. When we look at hospitalized cases, nearly 80% of people who have been hospitalized in the U.S. and reported to us have been under 50. The median age of hospitalized cases is 19 years old."(3) Deaths increased dramatically after the summer of 1918 (as seen below).(6) Likewise, White House Homeland Security Advisor John Brennan believes Americans must, "prepare for the possibility of a more serious fall outbreak of the [H1N1(A)] virus."(4)

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Though almost a hundred years has passed since the Spanish Flu pandemic, we currently are unprepared to cope with a flu pandemic of even moderate severity. Government surveys have shown that American hospitals have very limited surge capacity for medical crises. One such study found that more than half of the emergency rooms in major American cities are already operating over capacity, "meaning they have no available treatment space in the emergency room to accommodate new patients."(7) Further, current hospital emergency plans call for existing staff to take on additional responsibilities during disasters. There is already a nationwide nursing shortage predicted to last through 2016.(8) An overextended healthcare workforce may need to perform extra duties during a major public health emergency, and would quickly fall victim to fatigue, illness, and eventually absenteeism. The large increase in severe influenza cases predicted during this pandemic, along with frightened citizens known as the "worried well," could easily overwhelm our fragile medical system. If hospitals fail to meet the increased demand for care during a pandemic, then Americans will face this fatal threat without the advantages of modern medicine and technology.

The novel H1N1(A) pandemic threatens the health and lives of thousands of American students. For this reason, SPA advocates for governments, local community organizations, and individuals to take a wide range of preparatory and responsive measures to mitigate its potentially devastating effects. Though solutions may vary, everyone should consider what steps can be taken to ensure the safety of our student population.

The dangers of a pandemic are not limited to illness alone. Many workers may stay home due to illness, caring for sick relatives, or fear of contracting a deadly virus. Extended global worker absenteeism could create shortages in every sector, including food and energy. Additionally, critical infrastructure may suffer from supply and worker shortages, affecting our police, firemen, medical personnel, electrical workers, truck drivers, etc. The economic and social implications in such a crisis cannot be overstated. Families and communities should prepare by stockpiling essential items to survive for up to three months without external assistance. For extensive home preparedness information, please visit www.GetPandemicReady.org

SPA was originally formed in response to the pandemic threat of H5N1 Avian Flu. Though not currently a pandemic, the Avian Flu virus continues to circulate in bird populations and infect humans with a devastating rate of mortality. If H5N1 becomes a pandemic or in some way combines with the novel H1N1(A) virus to more efficiently infect humans,(9) a severe pandemic could begin with an unprecedented fatality rate of 60% or more. We must respond to this looming threat with unwavering dedication to a culture of preparedness.

This website is a source of information for many of the issues involved in pandemic preparation and response. Please do not hesitate to Contact Us with any additional questions you might have. Though we have many tools available to confront the current pandemic threat, there is nothing more important for individuals than staying informed. We hope you will join us in our efforts to prepare our nation and to protect our fellow young Americans from this developing crisis.

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References:

  1. World Health Organization, “World Now At The Start of 2009 Influenza Pandemic,”, June 11, 2009
    http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/statements/2009/h1n1_pandemic_phase6_20090611/en/index.html

  2. ABC News “White House Warns of Massive Swine Flu Spread,” August 5, 2009,
    http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/story?id=8403214

  3. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, "Telebriefing on Investigation of Human Cases of Novel Influenza A (H1N1),” June 26, 2009
    http://www.cdc.gov/media/transcripts/2009/t090626.htm

  4. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, “Obama Administration Call on Nation to Begin Planning and Preparing for Fall Flu Season & the New H1N1 Virus”
    http://www.hhs.gov/news/press/2009pres/07/20090709a.html

  5. Flu.gov, “Pandemics and Pandemic Threats since 1900”
    http://www.pandemicflu.gov/general/historicaloverview.html

  6. Taubenberger, J; Morens D (2006). "1918 Influenza: The Mother of All Pandemics"
    Emerging Infectious Diseases 12(1):15–22.PMID 16494711

  7. U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, “Hospital Emergency Surge Capacity: Not Ready For The Predictable Surprise,” May 2008
    http://oversight.house.gov/documents/20080505101837.pdf

  8. Kaiser Family Foundation Daily Health Policy Report, “Nursing Shortage Expected To Grow Annually Through 2016, According to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics,” January 6, 2009
    http://www.kaisernetwork.org/daily_reports/rep_index.cfm?hint=3&DR_ID=56284

  9. Reuters, “Will Two Flus Mix in Indonesia? Experts Worry,” June 29, 2009
    http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090629/hl_nm/us_flu_birdflu_1

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